Book Review : India at $55 Trillion by 2047? An Ambitious but Structured Vision
Book Review: India@100: Envisioning Tomorrow’s Economic Powerhouse by Krishnamurthy Subramanian
By Raj Shah
Former Chief Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister Modi, Krishnamurthy Subramanian, in his book India@100: Envisioning Tomorrow’s Economic Powerhouse imagines a daring economic future for India: a $55 trillion GDP by 2047, the centennial of India’s independence. With little inflation and minor currency depreciation, his forecast depends on an 8% annual GDP growth rate. Subramanian predicts that if the economy doubles every six years, it may quadruple in size by 2047 given India’s present GDP of $3.73 trillion. But he also admits more moderate options: with 5.6% per capita GDP growth, India will reach $29 trillion; at 6.6%, it might achieve $40.9 trillion. To meet the most optimistic predictions, the GDP per person would have to grow by an average of 7.5% per year. This is a big problem that many other countries also face. Notably, China grew at such rates from 2007 to 2020.
The Road Ahead: Structural Hurdles and Growth Challenges
Achieving sustained high growth is complex. The law of diminishing returns implies that as an economy matures, maintaining rapid growth becomes harder. India must overcome deep-seated challenges such as governance inefficiencies, infrastructure bottlenecks, outdated labor laws, and limited innovation to replicate China’s remarkable growth. “The $5 trillion GDP goal, which was supposed to happen in 2024–25, now looks like it could happen in 2026–27″. However, getting to $55 trillion will take a lot more than steady growth.
Beyond numbers, India’s transformation into a developed nation requires more than just GDP expansion. Today, India is a lower-middle-income country with a per capita income of $2,600. To become a high-income country by 2047, it needs to have a Human Development Index (HDI) of over 0.800 and a per capita income of more than $13,205. This means that education, healthcare, and the distribution of income must all get a lot better.
“India @100”: The Four Pillars
Subramanian organizes India @100 around four strategic pillars that are essential for building a self-reliant India (Atmanirbhar Bharat).
- Macroeconomic Growth
- Inclusive Development
- Ethical Wealth Creation
- A Virtuous Cycle Driven by Private Investment
This book is more practical than many others in the policy discourse because each pillar includes specific policy suggestions based on real-life government experience.
Pillar 1: Growth with Governance Reform
One main point of Subramanian’s argument is that the courts and government agencies need to be reformed right away. The judicial system, clogged with over 50 million pending cases, acts as a drag on the economy. Cases take decades to resolve—sometimes even generations. The Malda District Court’s 65-year-old partition suit is a telling example. Legal uncertainty deters investment and impedes contract enforcement, hurting economic dynamism.
Subramanian proposes streamlining the judiciary by filling existing vacancies rather than expanding judicial positions. But he says that bigger changes are needed, like giving judges Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), evaluating them based on how well they do their jobs, and using global best practices like the International Framework for Court Excellence. Real progress, he argues, will come only when judicial performance becomes measurable and accountable.
Bureaucratic reform is another critical area. We need to overhaul the current system, which is characterized by generalism, hierarchical inertia, and paper-based processes. Subramanian wants a system where people are promoted based on their performance and real-time KPIs. He also wants digital governance using AI and blockchain, decentralized decision-making at the local level, and rewards that are tied to performance. These changes, he asserts, are essential for reducing red tape and improving policy execution.
Pillar 2: Inclusive Development
Subramanian debunks the notion that welfare spending and economic growth are mutually exclusive. He highlights how technology has enabled the better targeting of subsidies, reducing leakages, and improving outcomes. The Atmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana, which created 6 million new jobs, is an example of how the government can help the job market.
A major focus is on job creation. India’s labor market is distorted by “dwarf firms”—businesses over 10 years old that remain small. These firms constitute 58% of all businesses but contribute only 14.8% to employment and 6.3% to value addition. In contrast, large firms make up just 16.8% but generate nearly 79% of jobs. Subramanian suggests shifting incentives from “dwarf firms” to “infant firms” with high growth potential and shifting lending toward industries that need a lot of labor, like electronics, clothing, and leather.
However, several obstacles remain. Labor law reforms are pending state-level notifications. Formalization costs are high. Skilling initiatives have yielded low placement rates. India might not be able to create the millions of jobs it needs every year without making the job market more flexible, improving vocational training, streamlining rules, and creating sector-specific FDI strategies.
Subramanian also talks about digital public infrastructure (DPI) as a force that can change things by making it easier for people to get money and help with their needs. He advocates for equitable climate policy and stronger support for small farmers through increased productivity and market access. Data and behavioral economics tools like Thalinomics and the Bare Necessities Index must underpin these efforts.
Pillar 3: Ethical Wealth Creation
India’s socialist past left behind two problems: people don’t want privatization to happen, and they think that money means favoritism. Subramanian says that the government should stay out of areas that aren’t important and should instead create a system based on rules that encourages honest, merit-based wealth creation.
In practice, this means making it easier for businesses to compete and promoting “creative destruction,” which is the process by which new technologies replace old ones. India lags in innovation, with the government shouldering most research burdens. While private sector involvement must increase, we also need to address inefficiencies in public R&D.
He highlights privatization as a key reform that can inject efficiency, raise investment, and fuel productivity growth. He says that creating wealth in an ethical way is important for restoring faith in capitalism and ensuring long-term support for market-driven reforms.
Pillar 4: A Virtuous Cycle Fueled by Private Investment
The final pillar highlights the importance of a robust financial system. For an economy to grow, it needs capital markets that work well, banks that serve everyone, and easy access to credit at low costs, especially for small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). Currently, India faces limited credit penetration, high borrowing costs, and inefficiencies in financial intermediation.
Subramanian recommends reforms to deepen financial markets, improve credit allocation, and enhance banking infrastructure. These changes would boost private investment and help entrepreneurs scale, driving innovation and job creation.
What Sets the Book Apart
Unlike many policy books that remain abstract, India @100 is rich with concrete policy recommendations. Subramanian’s insider perspective—combining academic rigor with governance experience—makes his ideas both ambitious and realistic. He addresses the institutional, political, and bureaucratic constraints that determine the feasibility of reforms.
Critics may debate the $55 trillion target, but the book’s true value lies in the roadmap it offers. Whether India ends up at $25 trillion or $50 trillion is secondary; what matters is adopting the right policies to unlock the country’s potential.
A Blueprint, Not a Crystal Ball
India @100 is not just about projecting big numbers; it is a comprehensive strategy to transform India into a developed nation. It insists on inclusive growth, institutional reform, and private enterprise leadership. India can rise not only in GDP rankings but also in human development, innovation, and global standing if it has the right kind of government and keeps up the reform momentum.
Subramanian’s vision is bold, but his blueprint is grounded in policy, pragmatism, and a profound understanding of the Indian system. The question is no longer whether $55 trillion is achievable, but whether India is willing to make the hard choices necessary to realize its destiny.
About the Author:
A software engineer by profession, Indian culture enthusiast, ardent promoter of hinduism, and a cancer survivor, Raj Shah is a managing editor of Desh-Videsh Magazine and co-founder of Desh Videsh Media Group. Promoting the rich culture and heritage of India and Hinduism has been his motto ever since he arrived in the US in 1969.
He has been instrumental in starting and promoting several community organizations such as the Indian Religious and Cultural Center and International Hindu University. Raj has written two books on Hinduism titled Chronology of Hinduism and Understanding Hinduism. He has also written several children books focusing on Hindu culture and religion.
